2024 YR4
March 5, 2026: The probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032 has dropped to zero as determined by NASA and ESA using astrometry from JWST acquired in February 2026.
- NASA announcement: New NASA Asteroid Observations Eliminate Chance of 2032 Lunar Impact
- ESA announcement: Asteroid 2024 YR4 will not impact the Moon
2024 YR4 is an asteroid that in late January 2025 rose above the IAWN notification threshold of 1% probability for a future impact with Earth on 22 December 2032 and later dropped (late February 2025) well below the notification threshold.
- The asteroid was first observed by the ATLAS Chile site (MPC Code W68) on 27 December 2024, with precovery images extending back to 25 December 2024.
- Observations by the world wide network of observers can be found on the MPC 2024 YR4 page.
- The absolute magnitude value is approximately 24. Its size is estimated to be in the 40-90 meter range.
- The asteroid's spectra has been observed, and is consistent with possibly an S or L spectral type (J. de Lèon, on the GTC, and N. Moskovitz, on the LDT).
- VLT data (M. Devogele) and La Silla 1.54 meter data (P. Pravec) indicate a rotational period near 19.5 minutes. The VLT observers have also obtained phase curve coverage from 5 to 35 degrees.
- JWST obtained measurements of 2024 YR4 on 26 March 2025. Modeling of the spectral energy distribution indicates an estimated diameter of 60 ± 7 m. The JWST observing team produced a report for IAWN.
Orbit Modeling Centers -- Object Pages
IAWN Notifications
- 2025.02.24: Final Notification: 2024 YR4 -- No Significant Potential for Future Impact with Earth
- 2025.01.29: Notification of Potential Impactor: Asteroid 2024 YR4
Other Documents
- MPC MPEC
- ESA Close Approach Fact Sheet (CAFS)
- Protocol for Negative Observations of Virtual Impactors on MPC Documents Page
- Discussion and presentations from the open session of 20th Meeting of the IAWN Steering Committee, 4 Feb 2025
Impact Probablity Evolution
This plot shows how the impact probability evolved compared to models.
Credit: NASA/JPL/CNEOS/Chesley
Observability Plots
LEFT: 30-yr (2000-2030) Ephemeris of 2024 YR4 and RIGHT: 2024-2030 Ephemeris of 2024 YR4
Courtesy NASA/JPL-Caltech/CNEOS
2024 YR4 Imagery
Looped animation of 4 images taken by Catalina Sky Survey of 2024 YR4 on the night of 6 January 2025 UT.
Courtesy NASA/Catalina Sky Survey/Seaman et al (DOI 10.26033/80fq-dn90)