2024 YR4
2024 YR4 is an asteroid that in late January 2025 rose above the IAWN notification threshold of 1% probability for a future impact with Earth on 22 December 2032 and later dropped (late February 2025) well below the notification threshold.
- The asteroid was first observed by the ATLAS Chile site (MPC Code W68) on 27 December 2024, with precovery images extending back to 25 December 2024.
- Observations by the world wide network of observers can be found on the MPC 2024 YR4 page.
- The absolute magnitude value is approximately 24. Its size is estimated to be in the 40-90 meter range.
- The asteroid's spectra has been observed, and is consistent with possibly an S or L spectral type (J. de Lèon, on the GTC, and N. Moskovitz, on the LDT).
- VLT data (M. Devogele) and La Silla 1.54 meter data (P. Pravec) indicate a rotational period near 19.5 minutes. The VLT observers have also obtained phase curve coverage from 5 to 35 degrees.
Orbit Modeling Centers -- Object Pages
IAWN Notifications
- 2025.02.24: Final Notification: 2024 YR4 -- No Significant Potential for Future Impact with Earth
- 2025.01.29: Notification of Potential Impactor: Asteroid 2024 YR4
Other Documents
- MPC MPEC
- ESA Close Approach Fact Sheet (CAFS)
- Protocol for Negative Observations of Virtual Impactors on MPC Documents Page
- Discussion and presentations from the open session of 20th Meeting of the IAWN Steering Committee, 4 Feb 2025
Impact Probablity Evolution
This plot shows how the impact probability evolved compared to models.
Credit: NASA/JPL/CNEOS/Chesley
Observability Plots
LEFT: 30-yr (2000-2030) Ephemeris of 2024 YR4 and RIGHT: 2024-2030 Ephemeris of 2024 YR4
Courtesy NASA/JPL-Caltech/CNEOS
2024 YR4 Imagery
Looped animation of 4 images taken by Catalina Sky Survey of 2024 YR4 on the night of 6 January 2025 UT.
Courtesy NASA/Catalina Sky Survey/Seaman et al (DOI 10.26033/80fq-dn90)